We will update these predictions throughout awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2023 Oscar picks. Final voting is March 2 through 7, 2023.  The 95th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 12 and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

See our previous thoughts for what to expect at the 95th Academy Awards here.

The State of the Race

The most consistent awards win for “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) has been Best Supporting Actor for star Ke Huy Quan. His journey from successful child actor in iconic films like “Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom” and “The Goonies,” to below-the-line worker on films like “X-Men,” back to a heartrending turn in the multiversal dramedy that became an indie box office sensation, is hard for Oscar voters to ignore.

Some have though, given how Quan lost at the BAFTAs to Barry Keoghan, star of “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight). The young actor arguably had the biggest surprise win of the show considering how it was long a question of whether or not he could even garner nominations alongside co-star Brendan Gleeson, who plays a more integral role in the Martin McDonagh film.

Back when “The Fabelmans” (Universal) was in the lead for Best Picture, in wake of its People’s Choice Award win at the 2022 Toronto International Film Festival, many pegged veteran actor Judd Hirsch to be the Supporting Actor frontrunner, but he has since fallen behind due to the overall loss of momentum for the Steven Spielberg family drama.

Meanwhile Brian Tyree Henry seemed like a longshot just to be nominated, having been overlooked by awards bodies like the Screen Actors Guild. That he made the final cut for the Oscars is a win for the very small, very intimate “Causeway” (Apple TV+), and was further assurance that Henry has many more awards runs to come.

Nominees are listed below in order of likelihood they will win.

Contenders:
Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”)
Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”)