Oscars 2023: Best Actress Predictions

8 March 2023

We will update these predictions throughout awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2023 Oscar picks. Final voting is March 2 through 7, 2023.  The 95th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 12 and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

See our initial thoughts for what to expect at the 95th Academy Awards here.

The State of the Race

As the Oscars near, the Best Actress race between “Everything Everywhere All at Once” star Michelle Yeoh and “TÁR” star Cate Blanchett has gotten even tighter.

Though “To Leslie” star Andrea Riseborough and “Blonde” star Ana De Armas have their ardent supporters, their Oscar nominations famously came as a surprise to many. Even “The Fabelmans” star Michelle Williams, who had been nominated four times before, was not considered a sure thing around the time of nominations voting.

Meanwhile, up until the Screen Actors Guild Awards, Blanchett had won just about every precursor (Drama Globe, Critics Choice, BAFTA), with Yeoh only getting one acceptance speech in, as the winner for Actress in a Comedy at the Golden Globes. However, since winning the SAG Award, Yeoh has ridden a wave of overwhelming awards success for her A24 hit, recently nabbing the gender-neutral Independent Spirit Award for Best Lead Performance over Blanchett and eight other contenders, including fellow Oscar nominee Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”).

No one is challenging Blanchett’s achievement as a mercurial orchestra conductor in “TÁR,” and based on precursors she should waltz away with the Oscar win. But she has won twice before. And Yeoh has built up tremendous good will on the awards circuit with her interviews and winner speeches about finally being seen and heard. The recent surge for “Everything” could bring long coattails and carry first-time nominee Yeoh to an historic Oscar win, the first for an Asian actor.

Given that it’s been over two decades since we’ve had a non-white Best Actress Oscar winner, the Academy may lean into those optics.

Nominees are listed below in order of likelihood they will win.

Contenders:
Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Cate Blanchett (“TÁR”)
Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”)
Ana de Armas (“Blonde”)
Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”)

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