Oscars 2023: Best Original Screenplay Predictions

6 March 2023

We keep updating these predictions through the awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2023 Oscar picks. Final voting is March 2 through 7, 2023.  The 95th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 12 and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

See IndieWire’s previous Oscars Predictions for this category and more here.

The State of the Race

With “Everything Everywhere All at Once” sweeping the guild awards, the conversation has turned from speculation about which Oscars, if any, writer-director duo Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert win to whether they will lose any of them at all.

On that count, the most likely candidate is Best Original Screenplay — if the Oscars go the usual route of sharing the wealth as much as they can. Though “Everything Everywhere All at Once” won the WGA Award a weekend before the Oscars, it comes with the asterisk that its main rival “The Banshees of Inisherin” was ineligible for the honor. Meanwhile, the Searchlight Pictures release bested the A24 box office hit at the BAFTA Awards, which does have voter overlap with the Academy. Also “Banshees” writer-director McDonagh has never won a screenplay Oscar (this is his third nomination in the category), so now would be a reasonable time to honor the acclaimed British-Irish filmmaker with the film nominated in so many other major categories.

That said, it was not too long ago when “Parasite” won Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay, so if “Everything Everywhere All at Once” really is as strong as it looks with American voters, an Oscar night sweep is very possible.

“TÁR” director Todd Field and “The Fabelmans” director Steven Spielberg happen to be in the same boat: They’re nominated in all three aforementioned categories, but similarly have lost to either “Everything Everywhere” or “Banshees” each time. A surprise win here is still possible though, especially for “TÁR,” as Oscar voters could find other ways beyond Cate Blanchett to honor the film, given that Best Actress seems like less of a lock for her.

Lastly, the prize for most creative campaign goes to longshot “Triangle of Sadness,” which collaborated with Film Independent to stage a raucous live reading right before final Oscar voting commenced. Director Ruben Östlund invited “Succession” actor Nicholas Braun, “The Bear” actress Ayo Edibiri, and “The White Lotus” star Simona Tobasco to fill in for his Palme D’Or-winning film’s leads, as he showed the audience how he incorporates banging a literal gong into his filmmaking process.

Nominees are listed below in order of likelihood they will win.

Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Todd Field (“TÁR”)
Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)
Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)

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